$TSLA - bull & bear case
The outline of each case
@QTRResearch Americans spend $1.23T a year on transportation. At a 12x, those cash-flows are worth $14.76T
If Tesla has a fleet of self-driving cars, it will capture the lions share, as many shed ownership, turn to cheaper, on-demand tx's (ie Uber use case)
What is the counter thesis?
I think it’s basically:
1. The Full Self Driving tech isn’t possible (this is clearly false)
2. Tesla can’t execute (they sell millions of cars - this idea seems misguided)
3. Someone else takes the FSD market. This is maybe the biggest risk, but Musk has more data than anyone but Google and Facebook, via his Twitter acquisition, his OpenAI ownership, and his vast wealth and network he can leverage to get even more data.
In AI, the one with the most data wins.
What did I miss?
Img source: https://electrek.co/2022/04/21/elon-musk-get-tesla-fsd-share-data/